Bitcoin surpasses $10 000 with ease but is the bear market really over? A contrarian look at price action based on Elliot Wave Theory

Bitcoin has been on a parabolic bull run this weekend, smashing back up through the $10k mark with ease and even pushing on up past $11k before settling just below it, as of writing. This truly looks like the bull market that we have all been waiting for throughout 2018. In fact all this year, since we bottomed out at $3.2k in mid December, Bitcoin has been steadily climbing. And particularly since 2 April, when we saw the Bitcoin price climb almost 20% in one day, most traders have been more and more certain that we are in the next bull run. But I want to look at the theory that says we may not be out of the bear market yet, as slim as that sounds, considering this weekend’s huge price pump.

Parabolic bull run but is it really the official bull market?

This is just a theory regarding the odds that we may not be out of the bear market yet. It’s good to see both perspectives and to be flexible, adaptable and open to all scenarios, lest our speculation or technical analysis theory does not consider all the variables, and there are a lot of variables in this market. Considering the fact that Bitcoin is up over 230% this in the past six months since the bottom, I would personally say we are in the next bull run. But I’m open to the opposite also being possible.

There is another advanced theory that says we should beware this parabolic move. Let’s look at the theory that says we may not be out of the bear market yet, at least so that we are aware of it, not that it’s definite because nothing is definite in crypto. Nobody can say for sure, but we can look at past price action, past patterns and also take into consideration expert analysis of market theory and technical analysis from all angles.

Elliot Wave Theory

If you study TA you will eventually come across an advanced system called Elliot Wave Theory. It describes how markets all move in waves or cycles, and Bitcoin is no exception. Now what if the price action we are seeing on the Bitcoin chart right now is not the bull market, and what if Bitcoin has not actually bottomed? It sounds absurd considering the current parabolic moves, but just because it looks like a bull market, let’s just consider the opposite so that we are open to the options. Nobody can say for sure either way so as traders we keep an open mind and are never attached to one theory or another. We let price determine and we follow. Here are some reasons why a bear market may not be over:

1- Sentiment

Currently the sentiment readings for Bitcoin are at serious highs. People are euphorically bullish in sentiment at present and understandably. We have just reached new highs for this year. In fact we are at extreme 2017 levels in sentiment, something we saw last just before the ATH (all time high) of December 2017, when Bitcoin approached $20k. Twitter is saying we will never see sub-$4k ever again for example. Extreme bullishness is a warning though when everyone is thinking the same way. We need to consider the contrary side. Contrarians are mavericks who often pre-empt the herd in these markets and seem like outsiders or fools, until later, when hindsight provides the 20/20 perspective of clarity. So with such bullish sentiment that we are way out of the bearish cycle, we need to at least consider what the opposite might mean, just in case, and so that we can be prepared either way.

2 – the speed of the current movements

The latest parabolic upward trend of Bitcoin has gone on for so long now, and at such an extreme curve upwards – 45 degrees – that it seems unrealistic and suspect. The upward move has been too fast to be sustainable. It’s not normal. We are almost half way back to the ATH, with only a doubling left to take us back to ATHs. Compared to the previous bull runs in 2015 and 2017, there have been far less retracements. We are still expecting that 30% pull back. But more importantly, if we look at the bear market of 2014, which bottomed in early 2015, it took a full 18 months for price to regain 50% of its previous decline. This time around so far it has taken a mere six months to get to the same place of the 50% retracement mark at $10k, half way down from the high of $20k. Something is not quite right.

3 – What about the missing failed rallies?

In early 2015, when price bottomed and started wanting to climb back up, there were two significant failed attempts before price really became genuinely bullish. This is a sign of a healthy market, and their absence is a sign that all is not right with this current parabolic move back up to current prices. We are still waiting for that pull back in price. Normally there should be a 30% retrace around now, or slightly more, but it has yet to manifest. Experts have been calling for it for weeks already.

4 – Importance of the 21 Weekly Moving Average indicator (21W SMA or EMA)

A healthy bull market is steady and measured and has numerous retracements along the way. Admittedly we had a couple of decent pull backs, one in mid May and one in the first week of June this year but that was only about 18% at the most for the latter larger retracement. In the past bull run leading up to the ATH, price had several pull backs to the 21 weekly MA. This is a crucial indicator that cannot be overstated. There is no other indicator more valuable to show whether we are in a bear or bull market. In the past we saw that once price crossed above the 21 weekly MA, it suggested that we were in a bull run. This year we crossed back up over the 21 W MA on that feverish week of 2 April, when price spiked massively. It could well be that experts were observing the bullish cross up over the 21 W MA and so began going long at that very moment.

5 Where are the retracements?

So not only have we yet to see one or two failed attempts to cross over the 21 W MA, but since crossing that famous indicator, we have not once come even close to a move back down to retest it. We have simply gone parabolic for the past 12 weeks, leaving the 21 W MA further and further behind. This is unsustainable and Bitcoin is therefore more than likely due to retrace back down to it at some point. At the moment the 21 Weekly EMA is at $5752 on the Binance BTC/USDT chart. It might vary form one exchange to another fractionally but there you have it. Statistics and past history determine that price will – at best – come back down to meet the 21 W MA eventually. And since the MA keeps moving with time and price, it is on the uptrend, but at some point price will fall back down to meet is as it rises up and that meeting could be somewhere like the much observed $6900 area of previous support or resistance for example.

B-Waves or Bear market rallies

The overall picture currently shows that current price action is, in fact, too bullish, moving to “extreme greed” on the indicator. I’m all for a positive run but this is not normal. And this is where experts will refer to Elliot Wave Theory. This is the real detail behind the theory that the bear market is not over. According to EWT we are very possibly now in a B-wave or Bear market rally.

B-waves are phonies. They are sucker plays, bull traps, speculators’ paradise, orgies of odd-lotter mentality or expressions of dumb institutional complacency (or both). They often are unconfirmed by other averages, are rarely technically strong, and are virtually always doomed to complete retracement by wave C. If the analyst can easily say to himself, ‘there is something wrong with this market’, the chances are it’s a B wave.”

from The Elliot Wave Principle by Robert Pretcher

Elliot Waves patterns are made up by price making 5 moves in a zigzag up, followed by 3 moves in a zigzag down, as seen in the graphic here. 1-5, followed by a-b-c. The ATH at $20k in December 2017 was the top of the fifth leg up for the last wave 5. The bear market of 2018 was the ‘a’ wave down until the bottom at $3,2k in December. Presently it appears as if we are in the next bull run up, but EWT suggests that this current leg up could simply be the ‘b’ wave of the a-b-c corrective pattern before the actual next 1-5 bull run up beyond $50k.

This ‘b’ wave could even climb right up to current levels over $11k, or higher still amazingly, even up close to the last ATH, and still be considered a bear market rally, a trap or a fakeout. Thereafter a massive retrace or ‘c’ wave down will follow, before the real bull market. And this wave ‘c’ could go lower than we expect. This exact scenario played out in the 2014 fakeout before the real bull run started. Price went up above the 21 W MA but retraced below it and remained there for over a year from July 2014 until October 2015 (with still another false break above the 21 W MA that lasted a few weeks).

Wave C could still take us to the real bottom below $3 200

If this is in fact a ‘b – wave’ fakeout, it could peak at the 0.618 Fib retracement back up around $13,5k, before falling back down below $3,2k to as low as $1,8k – $2,2k before starting the real bull run. So theoretically we may have not have seen the bottom yet, as absurd as that sounds at this euphoric point. Remember that to be considered a real and healthy bull market, Bitcoin price must retrace to retest the 21 W MA eventually, so a big dip in price is due. If it bounces and keeps climbing then that is good, but it could fall below, and if it does then watch out for the real bottom below $3,2k. I’m not saying anything is certain at this point, but at least it is good to know the possibilities based on past price action as well as detailed technical analysis as described by real experts.

I hope this gives you some food for thought. What’s your opinion? Is this the bull market, or is there another bear move to new lows ahead? Let us know in the comments below.


Solstice celebrations as Bitcoin shoots back up through $10 000 and up to $11 000

What a wild winter solstice it has been here for me in the south this weekend. It might be something like what Christmas time is for the rest in of the planet in the north. And it’s almost as if, right on cue, our Santa Satoshi pumped the Bitcoin price up through the psychological big even glass ceiling of $10 000.

And Bitcoin certainly raced through it as if it was glass, shattering records for the year and prices like there’s no tomorrow. It looks like Bitcoin wants to reach its old ATH in a matter of days all over again. Remember that heady time just before the last parabolic bull run in December 2017, it only took a matter of about three weeks from when Bitcoin hit $10 000, to makes its way up to $20 000. It doubled to complete the final blow off top in just a matter of days.

And then it crashed back down of course. In other words it’s impossible to say what might happen at this stage. This is one of those classic insane parabolic moves that you will only find in crypto. I personally was in the market around that time, having just found out about buying Bitcoin in late November 2017. So I came into the scene when Bitcoin was at this price of $10 000 ironically. I then saw it top off and cras,h and because I knew nothing about trading, I bought and sold a bit and tried to trade up, and even succeeded in doubling one investment once, but I also bought in at the higher part of the price action and have been sitting waiting for price to return to break even for me, and those days are fast approaching.

However, I still know how much there is to learn still, although experience does pay off, for I have watched the entire bear market and am now at least losing less and less, and even making mini fractional profits bit by bit. And I watched Bitcoin break through $10 000 live, late last night at about 1 am my time, and boy did I feel the rush of dopamine as I saw that huge green candle push up with such speed and determination that I realized we are seriously in the bull market and it began to feel like those weeks in December 2017 all over again, when Bitcoin was breaking through $10 000 for the first time.

It has of course happened a few times since then but not for a while and not since this year long bear market, so it felt good. Few could have anticipated the force of the bulls to push it all the way to past $11 000 with ease, although I have heard some expert technical analysts hint on the volume in the buy orders being thin once we got over the 10k mark and if we got that far, we would possibly shoot through the last bit of price action up to 11.5k. Well, we saw 11.2k just a little while ago.

And then I just saw a massive 10% price crash in a matter of what seemed like one 15 minute candle. It was graphic and gripping. I couldn’t look away. And I tried to protect some positions and capitalize on other opportunities as the price of Bitcoin and the top alts all swung wildly while a wild winter storm blew outside on the mid winters solstice. It felt truly like a rush of dopamine and cortisol back and forth through my system until I felt exhausted, watching price finally settle more or less back where it started for some, but not for all.

The alts have been a mixed bag, ETH picking up pace and LTC now more sluggish despite the hard fork in August and further upside expected. But it was emotionally wrenching watching near misses of beautiful looking lows and frustrating misses of massive gains. Well, that is the way it goes for a novice like me. I will be lucky to scalp a percent or two here and there while I concentrate now also on defence, or preservation of my stack in stable tokens, as a safe haven from which to trade a few swings.

Of course, besides my trading stack, I have my long term stack stored out of trading altogether. That is how I strategise. Two strategies for two investment types, long term and short term. Otherwise even the best traders can lose more than they should. At this stage in the market Bitcoin hodlers are outperforming most traders as BTC climbs like a tornado pulling some of the alts up with it into its parabolic move.

But the alts should come to the party, and they will. They just lag a bit. It happened after the ATH in December 2017. Bitcoin was already dropping from its ATH when the alts began there’s in January a month later. What will happen now, according to experts, is that Bitcoin will carry on up to $11,5k or 12k, possibly throw in a 30% retrace somewhere along the line, and during this time the alts will catch up in Satoshi value, and hopefully dollar value.

First the large cap alts like ETH, LTC, EOS, and others will make some solid gains, and then later some will trickle down to the smaller cap alts over the next few weeks and months as BTC retraces and climbs its way up to new highs. At this speed $20k will be surpassed with ease on the way to … leave a guess here. One guess is as good as another. Everyone’s an expert in the bull market. Knowing where to sell is the real genius though. So here’s to reading the signs and indicators with precision, and until the next anniversary at the summer solstice, or $20k BTC, whichever comes first, may the god of traders, the winged messenger be with us all.

News of the year -the conception of a new child after the marriage between Facebook and Cryptocurrency in the sacred space of Blockchain – and the child shall be called LIBRA

Possibly the biggest news in the cryptocurrency sector since the launch of Ethereum in 2015, and even the biggest news in social media and modern day digital banking history, is the release in the past 48 hours of Facebook’s own cryptocurrency, the Libracoin. Blockchain has gone mainstream and so has cryptocurrency. Is this a good or bad thing? Well it depends who you ask, but I think that when we look back at this point one day in the future, we will see that it marks a time when the world had a shift in direction that ushered in something more profound than we realize from this standpoint today.

If it takes off as Mark Zuckerberg hopes, since there’s likely to be stiff restriction from the SEC and US government, then this new cryptocoin, to be used on the Facebook platforms like WhatsApp, Messenger and Instagram, will open up a new world of digital money, possibly even reinventing the banking, insurance, lending, trading and financial sector in a move as big as going off the gold standard in the nineteen seventies, and possibly equally as ominous, although we will get into the pros and cons of it presently.

Few may have realized it at the time but going off the gold standard changed the financial playing field completely as it allowed the unfettered printing of paper fiat currency and ushered in a new era of deflation that we have never recovered from. Similarly launching a digital cryptocurrency stable token on the biggest social media platform, or in fact any online platform in the world, may change the face of finance in all its parameters, perhaps ushering the end of paper money and the shift from fiat currencies as the only form of money. Libra will be the first “global coin” (as it was named until dubbed Libra recently) to potentially be used by more than 2 billion people from hundreds of countries simultaneously.

It’s curious to note that the name denotes the old Roman Empire’s Latin concept of fairness and balance, but more importantly freedom. It may turn out to be rather ironic that a unit of measure in the Roman Empire called the Libra (from where the abbreviation lb for pounds originates), that great dictatorship that ruled almost the entire western world at the time, with a name suggesting fairness for its users, may become the very means by which the new world order, the modern day Roman Empire, enslaves us all via its digital control over everyone’s money, data, social credit score and therefore very freedom itself to transact without fear or favor.

Conspiracy theories aside though, some are already warning that this Libracoin is a Trojan Horse, that it is the way for the elite to capture all the data including our financial spending habits, so that they can add it as the last bit of information-gathering on us all, allowing them to finally have a full profile of everyone to tag them, follow them, target them and keep tabs so that they can be categorized and made to fit into the tightening parameters of acceptability at a time in history where freedom is the very thing slowly being eroded as the scales tip ever more in favor of the 1% elite at the top, while the 99% fall further and further into poverty and subjugation.

And all of this will be in the name of charity and the empowering of the masses. There are currently millions globally that do not have access to the internet or to banking and finance facilities, which means ironically they can’t be put into debt by unscrupulous money lenders. Facebook now wants to bring in the unbanked under their new net by spreading the internet like a literal net to capture all those outside of the system and then give them the one world digital currency via the most popular thing known to them all, namely Facebook, in a subtle and seamless takeover of the finances of the masses worldwide, without them complaining or trying to hide their private data whatsoever.

In accepting this new tool of commerce that makes transacting in micro and macro payments anywhere in the world so easy, are we effectively giving away our freedom and privacy in the process, so that down the line, when the trap is sprung, we will be so deeply immersed in it that it will be impossible for us to escape with our money and our liberty? But this is just an Orwellian cynical conspiracy theory so not worth worrying about, we hope.

After all, this is not just Facebook’s personal cryptocurrency to rival Bitcoin and Ethereum. Facebook is only one of several huge international mega corporations to buy in as investors into the Libracoin project. Facebook may be running it, but they know that their reputation is tarnished so they are playing a background role and to a degree are designing the Libracoin project as a decentralized concept. Among real crypto enthusiasts it is comparatively centralized, and does not compare to Bitcoin in that regard, but compared to mainstream banking it is revolutionary, and so comes somewhere in the middle, the marriage of mainstream and cryptocurrencies.

So depending on who you are, you may or may not appreciate the project. It is also more than a coin, it is an ecosystem that is planning to have faster TPS (transactions per second) than Bitcoin (7TPS) and even Ethereum (15 TPS before sharding). Visa is around 24 000 TPS if needed although usually does around 2000TPS. Facebook, with its billions of users, plans to basically become another Visa, or PayPal and so will need speed in its blockchain to process the potentially high volume of payments being processed through its Libra token system. There are other faster cryptocurrencies, like XRP (1500TPS), but Libra will outdo even that. And it will be very cheap to transact, although the shareholders will be making their money of the interest on your fiat investments as well as your transaction fees

From the Bitcoin maximalist point of view, Libracoin is a step down from true decentralized cryptocurrency but from the mainstream banking sector this is revolutionary, so if we see it in this way, we could say that it may even usher in a new wave of acceptance of digital currencies and act as a gateway or onramp for millions in the mainstream to enter into the real cryptocurrency sector. Purists will of course always decry Libracoin as nowhere near the real deal as propounded by Satoshi Nakamoto, the founder of the Bitcoin white paper.

Nevertheless the release of the Libracoin white paper this week by Facebook and their partners reveals that it comes from a pedigree team of Ph.D Stanford specialists after at least a year in the making and is based on all the experience learned by watching how Ethereum performs and then improving on that. Just like Ethereum, the second biggest crypto blockchain platform after Bitcoin, Libra will allow developers and coders to actually build Apps upon their platform, as well as write “smart contracts”, which is the newest cutting edge level of coding in today’s tech sector.

The company behind Libracoin may be Facebook, but they are not alone in running the show. Some of the biggest corporations in the world are investing $10 million each to be partners in the project, names such as Visa, Uber, Investment fund Andreesen Horowitz, Mastercard, PayPal, Stripe, Visa, Lyft, Vodaphone, Coinbase, Spotify to begin with. In fact to qualify to be a shareholder or investor you have to be a multi million dollar global company. This is for the super rich globalists it seems.

Fortunately the governance of the entire Libracoin plus the Calibra wallet to be built into WhatsApp, is to be divided up between 100 investors who all have a 1% vote. This protects Facebook from any more privacy law suits, as they are apparently on the surface a minority stakeholder. People no longer trust FB so this is there way of disguising their influence, but behind the scenes they are the ones who hired the software engineers, including David Marcus, ex director of PayPal and Coinbase crypto exchange to run the project.

Besides that there are actually two coins involved, one for retailers like us which will be pegged to a basket of fiat currencies, thus ensuring its stable value, and another which is open only to big investors, which looks to me basically like a share in the company. In the new tokenized world where everything can be digitally divided up and sold like shares, the blockchain is opening up the investment field with crypto tokens as the new shares. The amazing part is that coders and developers can now write their own smart contracts on the Libra blockchain, just like we do on Ethereum or EOS and others, to build our own tokens or trade parameters, which are like shares in whatever it is we want to trade.

In the long run there is a lot that can be said about this new historic move to launch Facebook’s Libracoin, which is aiming for 1000TPS with 10 second confirmation, according to the white paper found here: More importantly there is no KYC (know your customer) or AML (anti money laundering) where we have to give our proof of address and ID, as usually needed in a bank, to use the actual Libracoin, so it could still be anonymous. Its only the protocol or second level building of Apps that will require your personal data. There is a difference, so it appears private on the surface.

Libra stablecoin is still in testnet phase for the next year, and if Facebook can withstand the demand from the US government and the SEC to reign in their revolution, they should go live by then, and we will know once and for all if this global crytpocurrency run out of Geneva Switzerland will be a tool to liberate the poorest masses or bind them still further. Facebook already has our data and knows more about us than we realize. Now we will be giving them our financial details too, like our spending habits and our transaction details. Will they use it to target us with advertising still further, as well as use tighten their surveillance on us for their handlers in the NWO? Only time will tell.

Cultivating the psychology of a smart trader as Bitcoin breaks new highs for the year over $9300

I doubt there is anyone in the cryptocurrency sphere that is not amazed by the current Bitcoin blastoff in price. It looks like the Full Moon is the destination the way price action is climbing still further in this parabolic move that looks like it will go on forever.

Never before in my experience, which is admittedly limited to about 18 months in the crypto scene, have I seen such an enthusiastic bull run. Since April 2 Bitcoin has been climbing and made new yearly highs around $9300 this weekend. Usually volume drops on the weekends and price can get up to more volatile behaviour, and it certainly did this weekend, but where’s the retrace? Even within this recent uptrend, we have had at least two noticeable retracements in price of around 20%, so volatility is there, and will continue.

The weekend is gone, Monday is here and almost over, yet Bitcoin continues to hold its value, way up at the new highs for the past 12 months in fact. This is truly momentous, but even experienced traders never expected so much bullish momentum or price action. Even technical indicators could never point to so much profit to be made over these past three months.

If you had just held your Bitcoin, and not day traded in and out of altcoins to attempt to increase your stablecoin or Bitcoin holdings, you would have made massive gains. And any intelligent crypto trader will have two sets of crytpo – one for long term “hodl” and one for trading. The long term hodl can sit there for the next two more years at least so that it can benefit from the long bull run that has just started and can grow in value until its next peak, wherever that may be. Estimates are varied but accuracy can be obtained by looking at past bull runs over the years and seeing the pattern.

And then just sell out when you need the money in a few years and be content. The practice of day trading a section of one’s Bitcoin or altcoin holdings is riskier but can lead to more profit, as one makes small gains on a daily basis. The truth is that not even expert traders can perfectly time the tops and bottoms. They are as hard to catch as the wind, but we can catch a chunk of each move and take profit. And that is the strategy to cultivate.

Every trader should have a strategy and stick to it, otherwise the mind can play tricks on us in times of pressure, stress, excitement, fomo or fud. A strategy is to be worked on in the clear light of day, with a cool head after serious scrutiny of the market conditions. And then one sticks to it because you know it works and is the intelligent thing to do.

Market volatility can make one want to make impulsive or instinctive choices when trading, and sometimes a single mistake can be costly. That’s why the basics need to be in place from the start. I may be tempted to use some of my long term holdings to beat the market by buying and selling but what if I miss the move and get left out on the sidelines as Bitcoin goes to the Moon?

That’s why we clearly set out from the start which Bitcoin we will hodl and which we are willing to risk in the volatile art and science of day trading or swing trading. Those kind of decisions are the beginning of the traders strategy. After that there can be more details, or tactics to refine the overall strategy, but the battle is not just with the volatile Bitcoin price action. It is also with ones’ own mind and impulses, like fear and greed, hankering and lamentation.

Half the skill in trading crypto or any asset like Forex, is to master the psychology of trading, to harness the mind, remove the emotions and stick to the plan. You learn in the beginning from a few expensive mistakes and quickly the strategy forms based on those past mistakes, and it is refined daily with new data and information as well as new experience. Keep learning, there is always more to know.

There is noting better than actually having some of your own money invested in the market to really give you a feel for what it’s like to watch the potential profits pass by your vision like waves of opportunity. Like a surfer waiting for just the right wave, we sit it alert readiness to pull the trigger. Or we do a thorough technical analysis and we make our position clear, stating entry based on conditions as well as our take profit exit point, regardless of the fact that there could be a massive move that we miss.

It’s all about catching the bulk of the move in price and not lamenting for the extra that we missed. If we live in lamentation we will cause our own suffering, like a lover whose love is not reciprocated and who then falls into a melancholy based on sentimental illusions of what was or could have been. This is all a waste of energy in the end because potentially any or every other day there will be massive moves in price that we miss. Especially now in Bitcoin’s current parabolic move upward.

Never be put off by what you missed but be content with the profit you did lock in today, the few percent that all add up day by day. The main thing before accumulation of wealth is preservation of what you already have and so the risk:reward ratio has to be in your favor at all times in every trade. And for that to occur the parameters under which we enter a trade and the procedures we follow to protect ourselves from the trade going wrong are more important in the long run than leaving oneself too exposed to a reversal to the downside and a loss of one’s assets.

So ideally just buy and hodl, buy more during the dips each time, accumulate, dollar cost average, buy in bit more to add to your stack every month if you can, and just keep slowly accumulating over the months regardless of the price. This is a long term strategy which is safe and guaranteed to preserve your investment money and bring you profit during the bull run over the next two years. Then time your exit at the end as well as you can and remember not to lament if price goes higher and you have sold. Price will always be going higher – even to $1 million one day potentially for one Bitcoin, who knows? So enjoy the profit you do have and leave it at that. Hankering and lamenting are for fools and lovers who are moonstruck and not thinking logically.

And Bitcoin is about money and money is not going to be made based on sentiment when trading or investing but on fundamentals and technicals, so keep a cool head and don’t let the allure of wealth eat away at the other treasures of life that you have, like time, health, family and relationships. Money is only one department, an important one but not worth losing the other valuable ones for. Keep the balance and allow time to be your ally, for time and patience, according to millionaire investor Warren Buffet, is what allows money to flow from the impatient to the patient. Watch and learn and it will all fall into place one percent at a time.

Why is Binance cryptocurrency exchange closing its doors to US customers?

Binance is one of the biggest Bitcoin and crypto exchanges in the world. Poloniex used to be the top place to trade, and then Bittmex came along. But by 2017 Binance launched and became a major platform for traders globally. It remains one of the top places for traders because it has the most volume generally, and without volume it’s very difficult to find buyers or sellers to meet your price.

There are other exchanges globally but their volume is far less. Fewer people use them to trade, so what happens is your trade sits there unfilled for a lot longer. This sluggish action makes trading difficult and boring. Also there are sometimes premium prices or higher prices compared to other more liquid exchanges where the spread between buyer and seller is far less. Binance has really used good marketing as well as clever economic strategies like the famous IEO or Initial Exchange Offering. This is the new ICO and a place where the exchange itself launches the new tokens to retailers. Binance is having one every month nowadays and people seem to take to it because they like and trust exchanges far more than some random company or startup launching a white paper and a new token. ICOs got a bad rap in 2018 with the numerous scams around but exchanges like Binance and others seem safer. Not that they don’t also get up to shady business like wash trading and inflated fake volume too.

So it makes sense that Binance is now so popular. They are even launching their decentralized exchange presently, a particularly promising and much sought after place to trade in the new cryptocurrency industry. The Dex, as it’s called, is a safer place with more privacy for the discerning trader. All of these aspects have made Binance very popular and also very rich. Their profit was huge even in the bear market of 2018, in the billions of dollars. That’s where all your trading fees go for each trade you make. Also the Binance token BNB has also gone from strength to strength. In fact BNB has outperformed Bitcoin lately and Bitcoin has outperformed everyone in the mainstream conventional finance sector, like fiat and gold.

But something concerning has just occurred in the recent revelation that Binance is closing its doors to US customers. Now all American traders have 90 days to sell up and leave the exchange for good. Their are other exchanges of course, but as I said, their volume is low and trading is sluggish. The interesting thing is that the old US traders will be looking for a place to trade and may just take their business to the other platforms, like Bitmex, Coinbase and others.

By September 12 Americans will be off the exchange. What will this do to Binance for the rest of us? Many US traders are there to make up the Bitcoin and crypto trade volume and their departure may lead to a slump in volume of sorts. It may cause the end of the BNB pump…or will it? And added to that it looks like Americans will be banned form other platforms like Bittrex too this year. What is going on? Presumably it revolves around the SEC and the laws and regulation from the US government that label many of the tokens traded as securities, and so they are clamping down.

Let us know in the comments if you have any information regarding the upcoming closure of Binance and other exchanges to American traders. There go all the dollars. I presume Binance are not too worried that this will affect their bottom line. They have so many other strategies going on that CZ the CEO is probably one of the biggest wealth earners in the world a the moment, among the top achievers in finance, like a Bill Gates or Warren Buffet of cryptocurrency.

I’m not a US citizen so will carry on using Binance. The trading fees are very low, at 0.075% per buy or sell, equalling 0.15% in total added to the price of your profit made on the complete transaction. And if I can achieve even a 2-4% profit on most of my trades, doing day trading and scalping, I don’t mind paying 0.15% in BNB token each time. My actual Bitcoin holdings are down since the start of the year but my overall dollar holdings or worth is up from my Binance exchange trading over the past six months.

This is because I have moved away form accumulating Satoshis or Bitcoin directly and have focussed on accumulating dollars. I trade in and out of stable coins like TUSD or PAXOS and occasionally USDT if I have to, though I am wary of it, with all their continued printing by the million every few weeks. The bear market last year really ate away at my original investments on Binance. It was also my first year learning how to trade, so I made a few careless mistakes and took a few losses along the way. Nevertheless, I’m refining my strategy all the time and now working on reacquiring my lost value, a few percent at a time.

One concern with the block to US citizens is that it may prevent them from accessing numerous of the tokens available on Binance which may not be found much on other exchanges. What will happen to the volume of those coins for the rest of us and for the companies involved? This could be a game changer for smaller tokens. Hopefully they will be available on other exchanges like Kucoin, which has numerous smaller tokens, some of which were on Binance, and more.

Overall, for me trading can be fun and can lead to a skill that will make you money for life if you master it. it’s like riding a horse in that sometimes you get thrown and fall badly in the beginning but if you get the courage to climb back up on the horse with new insights and experience, you can eventually master the art and tame the beast that will take you far. There is so much free advice and education on trading that I simply teach myself online from the writing and lessons of others, along with my own personal experience, and I believe that I can learn the mistakes I need to with small amounts of cash now, so that I can have the know how when it comes to trading bigger sums in future.

There is nothing like making money while putting your feet up at home or on the beach. I choose such a fun life, with minimal endeavor, and you can too, if your mind will allow you to. Don’t give up your day job of course, but supplement it with crypto trading or investing and you will win in this year’s bull market. It can be done, don’t give up if you fail at first. Get on that horse and ride it to the moon. I will see you there.

Zen and the art of day trading

Trading cryptocurrency or any commodity, is a learning curve, and in the early days one can learn the technical analysis required to read a chart but there is always that most important element in trading that can’t be so easily learned on paper, namely the psychological factor.

Trading, according to billionaire investor Howard Marks, is a psychological game. You are dealing with your own mind and instincts in the moment on the day. The mind can vary in its outlook or interpretation of a chart from day to day. Also the mind can be defensive or bearish on one day, and aggressive or bullish on the next, regardless of the price of an asset.

So it takes years of experience to really master not only the technicals of the price charts but more importantly your own mind.

Great traders tell us to keep our emotions out of our trading. They get in the way and they also cause us more problems that necessary. All traders, even experts, are going to make mistakes along the way and be obliged to take a few losses. The secret is to make sure your losses are smaller than your gains. In that way you come out on top overall. And when we make those trades that miss the golden opportunities by minutes, then there is no value in hankering or lamenting.

Hankering comes from longing for something yet to be attained, and lamenting comes from missing out on something from which we could have benefited. We need to be active in pursuing our goals, but not attached to the goals themselves, because attachment is what brings suffering in the form of misery in loss. There are going to be losses sometimes so a good trader gets used to feeling uncomfortable apparently. S/he factors in the potential loss by not investing everything all at once, or keeping cool by only investing small amounts at a time.

Also the popular refrain is not to invest more than you can afford to lose. Not that anyone can afford to lose too much, but the idea is not to wager your monthly expense money, because if you lose that month, you will be in trouble. And take a small profit with appreciation, instead of criticizing yourself for missing the bigger profit overall. Nobody can call the tops and the bottoms of price movements with full certainty, so grab the bulk of the move and be content with that.

The saying in many industries is “safety first” and this applies to protecting your assets in trading too. Before attempting to risk anything on making a potential profit, the most important thing is to protect what you already have. Wealth preservation is as important as wealth creation. Sometimes doing nothing is the best move on the day, rather than constantly trying to chase any opportunity, regardless of risk and reward ratio. So it’s defense before attack in this battlefield against the price action.

The power of psychological influences must never be underestimated. Greed and fear are the two instincts that need to be tamed in trading, which becomes like a meditation and a purification process. You see all your shadow qualities coming out and you are forced to confront them and refine them, lest they cause you to lose your money. No one is immune to the animalistic instinct to chase for more when it is dangled alluringly before our eyes in the price charts of the cryptocurrencies all day long.

So don’t be hard on yourself either, when you see the mind fall victim to unwanted traits. Recognise them for what they are, become the observer of the mind. By doing that you immediately distance yourself from the mental activity. As the observer it is easier to see the thoughts as just that, passing thoughts, and the habits as something learned, not actually “you” the observer. By objectifying the mental constructs, we can distance ourselves from them, and then see that we are not them. By being conscious of them, we can neutralise their influence over us. We are not the mind, with its fleeting emotions and passions, but rather we are the observer of the mind.

In this way one practices “Zen and the art of crypto trading”, and finds the trading exchange to be the meditation chamber, where one meets the mind and senses, as well as ultimately the self beyond the mind.

So may you be guided by your intelligence, which is based on learning from the masters as well as personal experience, in whatever path you walk, for all of our paths lead us to ourselves, all can bring our spiritual lessons on the way. Life is the great teacher, and from our mistakes we learn the secrets of the universe. May you learn from the mistakes and wisdom of the past and from others, so as not to have to make the same mistakes yourself.

Will the real Satoshi please stand up – not Craig S. Wright but Paul Solotshi Le Roux?

As the crypto community just finishes recovering form the Faketoshi Dr Craig Wright controversy and attempts at copyrighting the Bitcoin White Paper released by the original Satoshi, another story has emerged regarding who the founder and writer of the Bitcoin code might be.

A character has emerged by the name of Paul Solotshi Calder Le Roux, and he is from my country of South Africa (or possibly Rhodesia/Zimbabwe next door according to wikipedia). He was adopted after birth so Le Roux is an adopted name presumably, and no one really knows his parents, although Wikipedia mentions a rumor that his maternal grandmother was married to a US senator. He was the founder of encryption software E4M as well as TrueCrypt. All this is very new and highly speculative information unfolding today and I wouldn’t take it as legit just yet, if at all, but the coincidences have a ring to them, like the middle name of Paul Leroux, that sounds awfully close to Satoshi.

It sounds absurd but there is a Reddit post from three weeks ago that goes into this saga like a plot from a Hollywood movie. The interesting fact is that this guy is part of the circle of Dr Craig Wright. You can check it out here:

What is also interesting is that his second wife had an Asian name – Lilian Cheung Yuen Pui – though it’s not a Japanese name, more from Hong Kong. Also he did live in Hong Kong before moving to Rotterdam, where he married her. Le Roux ran a multinational illegal drug trafficking syndicate, with Israeli ex-military as his bodyguards.

Le Roux is a popular South African name (not Rhodesian, they have British names) and apparently this Paul Le Roux is described in a document from the court case of Dr Craig Wright – the original wannabe Satoshi, who has been telling the world for years that he is the famous unknown originator of Bitcoin. Apparently this Paul Le Roux was a criminal genius who devised the Bitcoin code to launder money. He was captured soon after the original Satoshi went quiet on the internet and has been in jail ever since, and may be there for life.

This may explain why the fabled Satoshi wallet full of 1 million Bitcoins has never been accessed. He might be in jail. Anyway, it’s a real detective mystery and this could just be another red herring. Dr Craig Wright was apparently an employee of Le Roux and thus aware of the Bitcoin project, and may have even been an informant who helped in the capture of Le Roux. This could be why he feels so safe claiming he is Satoshi today. He knows the real Satoshi is in jail.

The plot thickens and Wright apparently was able to get hold of the Satoshi wallets with the 1 million Bitcoin, via Dave Kleinman (deceased now but another possible candidate for Satoshi), but they are all encrypted. That’s why their Bitcoin have never moved, despite Wright trying for years to access them. Another famous name, Calvin Ayre, who became a billionaire trough his online gambling enterprise, has allegedly set up warehouses full of computers, disguised as Bitcoin miners, that are actually all being used to attempt to crack the encryption on the wallets. All of these guys knew each other at the time the Bitcoin White paper was released, and they may know the truth. But if Le Roux is a major drug dealer and actually a self-confessed murderer of maybe seven people, it makes you wonder about the credentials of Dr Craig Wright and Calvin Ayre, to be associating with this murdering drug smuggler.

Anyone who has made his billions through gambling, like Calvin Ayre, is to be considered very suspect in my opinion, like Donald Trump for example. Gambling means Mafia, criminal elements and conmen, in my opinion, particularly if you are running a gambling business. It is a low class, underworld-type industry, like prostitution… and politics (Trump again).

By the look of the comments on the Reddit post, not many people buy this story of Paul Le Roux being Satoshi, but rather link Dr Craig Wright and Calvin Ayre with this underworld crime boss and make them all out to be gangster criminals, trying to set CSW up as the great Satoshi himself so that when they crack the security and break into the wallets with a million Bitcoin, they can then legitimately sell it. Keep trying guys, you won’t do it for another decade if at all, but by then Bitcoin will be worth $1 million so you could be the richest guys on earth.

These Bcash Faketoshi conmen are a cause for concern in the cryptocurrency industry, but then wherever there is a mass accumulation of money, you will find criminals and opportunists. That is just human nature. Who in the crypto industry actually has the moral amnesia to still invest in or trade in Bcash, any of the two of them? They are a scam and a fraud, stealing the Bitcoin logo and name and trying to literally be the inventor Satoshi himself. What a scam. But I should be careful, I might just land up with a court case as they try to sue me. Well, we South Africans are known to be good villains ourselves. Ask Paul Le Roux, or Oscar Pistorius (Olympic medal paraplegic runner who shot and killed his girlfriend with a shotgun), or Jacob Zuma (ex President of the country).

Whether this Paul Le Roux is the actual Satoshi remains to be seen. It’s unlikely and it may just be a scam by Dr Wright yet again, with his henchmen. It does also tarnish the reputation of Satoshi somewhat, and thereby Bitcoin, to make it appear as if the inventor is a criminal genius of murderous intent who invented Bitcoin for money laundering. Apparently Dr Wright revealed the info on Le Roux in secret in court, for fear of his life, and hoped it would be redacted, but the court clerk forgot to do a proper job. The irony.

To conclude, Bitcoin is an entity unto itself now so it doesn’t mater if we ever find the real Satoshi or not. Bitcoin will carry on. There are some reservations about Le Roux, a mastermind drug dealer and conman, being Satoshi. But there are also some coincidences. Like his skill in C++ coding language, and his identical South African (British) spelling and phrasing to the original Satoshi’s written posts. That however, is not enough evidence at this point so this Le Roux who is in jail for life now, will probably just go on to the list of Satoshi candidates, while his fellow criminals run Bcash like a manipulated scam that it is.

Your opinions in the comments section will be appreciated.

Further reading: